header image

[Sign Up Now] to Receive Our FREE Daily SCVTV-SCVNews Digest by E-Mail

Inside
Weather


 
Calendar
Today in
S.C.V. History
March 28
1934 - Bouquet Canyon Reservoir, replacement for ill-fated St. Francis Dam & reservoir, begins to fill with water [story]
Bouquet Reservoir


Click map to enlarge

Click map to enlarge

Shipping lanes through the Arctic Ocean won’t put the Suez and Panama canals out of business anytime soon, but global warming will make these frigid routes much more accessible than ever imagined by melting an unprecedented amount of sea ice during the late summer, new UCLA research shows.

“The development is both exciting from an economic development point of view and worrisome in terms of safety, both for the Arctic environment and for the ships themselves,” said lead researcher Laurence C. Smith, a professor of geography at UCLA.

The findings, which explore accessibility during the Arctic’s most navigable month of the year, September, appear in the latest issue of the scholarly journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Plus. The first thorough assessment of trans-Arctic shipping potential as global temperatures continue to rise, the study is based on independent climate forecasts for the years 2040 to 2059.

By mid-century, even ordinary shipping vessels will be able to navigate previously inaccessible parts of the Arctic Ocean, and they will not need icebreakers to blaze their path as they do today, the researchers found.

“We’re talking about a future in which open-water vessels will, at least during some years, be able to navigate unescorted through the Arctic, which at the moment is inconceivable,” said co-author Scott R. Stephenson, a Ph.D. candidate in the UCLA Department of Geography.

Just as surprisingly, the Arctic ice sheet is expected to thin to the point that polar icebreakers will be able to navigate between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans by making a straight shot over the North Pole, Smith and Stephenson predict.

“Nobody’s ever talked about shipping over the top of the North Pole,” Smith said. “This is an entirely unexpected possibility.”

The route directly over the North Pole is 20 percent shorter than today’s most-trafficked Arctic shipping lane, the Northern Sea Route, which hugs the coast of Russia. For vessels traveling between Rotterdam in the Netherlands and Yokohama, Japan, the Northern Sea Route is already approximately 40 percent shorter than the traditional route through the Suez Canal.

Even the fabled and notoriously treacherous Northwest Passage, which traces Canada’s coastline and offers the most direct route from Asia to eastern Canada and the northeasternmost part of the U.S., is expected to become more viable for Polar Class 6 vessels — a common type of ship that has been strengthened against ice — and possibly even ships with unreinforced hulls, which make up the lion’s share of the world’s commercial fleet.

Today, the Northwest Passage is theoretically navigable only one out of seven years, on average, making it too unreliable to be a viable option for commercial shippers, the researchers said. But by mid-century, sea ice will melt in September to the point that it is accessible every other year, on average. Choosing whether to ship through the passage “will become a coin toss,” Smith said.

The predictions, however, do not foresee access beyond late summer. “This will never be a year-round operation,” Smith stressed.

Smith is an authority on the ways in which climate change is affecting the Arctic, where average temperatures have risen faster than the global average since the mid-1980s. He has quantified the disappearance of more than 1,000 Arctic lakes. He also is the author of “The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization’s Northern Future,” a 2010 book that looks at new economic opportunities, as well as environmental degradation, taking shape in the northern quarter of the globe. With Stephenson, Smith has calculated the toll global warming will take on Arctic ice roads and the communities and businesses that depend on them.

For centuries, the Arctic Ocean has captured the imagination of explorers because of the possibility it offers for traveling between the Pacific and the Atlantic oceans through the Bering Strait. Until recently, however, sea ice has blocked access to the potential shortcut between Asia and North America or Europe. But in the past two years, the ice has begun to melt in late summer to such an extent that even ordinary seagoing vessels, albeit with escorts, have been able to enter its frigid waters. In summer 2012, a total of 46 voyages successfully crossed the Northern Sea Route.

To arrive at their predictions, Smith and Stephenson studied these emerging shipping routes and the degree of ice melt that has made them possible. They then took the results from seven respected forecasts for the sea ice cover in the Arctic and averaged predictions for the extent of the Arctic ice sheet in September, historically the month when the ocean has the least amount of ice coverage, for every year between 2040 and 2059.

The researchers factored in two scenarios for climate change: one that assumed a 25 percent increase in global carbon emissions, which is generally expected to produce a medium-low increase in temperatures, and one that assumed an additional 10 percent increase in emissions, which is expected to produce a higher increase in temperatures. To their surprise, changes in accessibility were similarly dramatic under both scenarios.

“No matter which carbon emission scenario is considered, by mid-century we will have passed a crucial tipping point — sufficiently thin sea ice — enabling moderately capable icebreakers to go where they please,” Smith said.

The mid-century projections may seem distant when measured against the lifespan of adults living today, the researchers concede. But the period falls well within the long lead times of commercial and governmental planning efforts. As such, the projections have implications for port construction, acquisition of natural resources and the establishment of jurisdiction of shipping lanes, Smith and Stephenson stress.

Canada, for instance, has long maintained that the Northwest Passage falls under Canadian sovereignty, while the U.S. maintains it is an international strait. As long as the passage was essentially unnavigable, the issue was moot, but increasing accessibility could bring the U.S. into dispute with its northern neighbor, the researchers warn.

The increasing viability of shipping routes through the Arctic is also likely to increase pressure on the U.S. to ratify the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Some newly accessible shipping lanes would pass through waters over which the U.S. could make internationally accepted sovereignty claims if it ratified the treaty, the researchers said. Countries that claim sovereignty are able to lay down rules for the vessels that pass through their waters. Russia, which controls the Northern Sea Route, currently requires shipping companies to pay steep fees for escort vessels to accompany their fleets.

The unprecedented new navigation routes that are expected to open up could allow shipping companies to sidestep these escort fees and other Russian regulations, but these new lanes could take Polar Class 6 vessels and even common ships into less-regulated international waters.

While attractive to business, the lack of regulations poses safety, environmental and legal issues that have yet to be resolved, the researchers stress. The prospect of open-water ships entering the Arctic Ocean in late summer heightens the urgency for comprehensive international regulations that provide adequate environmental protections, vessel safety standards and search-and-rescue capability, they said.

“The Arctic is a fragile and dangerous place,” Smith said.

Comment On This Story
COMMENT POLICY: We welcome comments from individuals and businesses. All comments are moderated. Comments are subject to rejection if they are vulgar, combative, or in poor taste.
REAL NAMES ONLY: All posters must use their real individual or business name. This applies equally to Twitter account holders who use a nickname.

1 Comment

  1. DaveCline says:

    Now YOU can join the new fleet of Arctic Pirates now assembling along the coast of Canada and Russia.

Leave a Comment


HIGHER EDUCATION LINKS
LOCAL COLLEGE HEADLINES
Tuesday, Mar 26, 2024
California State University, Northridge is partnering with the Fernandeño Tataviam Band of Mission Indians and the Tataviam Land Conservancy to battle the impact of climate change in disadvantaged communities throughout the San Fernando Valley by establishing “urban forests.”
Monday, Mar 25, 2024
The Santa Clarita Community College District Board of Trustees will hold a special joint meeting with the Associated Student Government in open session from 2 p.m. to 3:30 p.m.
Wednesday, Mar 20, 2024
Holly Hitt-Zuniga has been selected to represent COC and the National Science Foundation’s Center for Renewable Energy Advanced Technological Education in Iceland.
Wednesday, Mar 20, 2024
When you enter the main floor of the west wing of the California State University Northridge library, you’ll soon notice a new mural blending art, nature and the Indigenous history that the campus sits on.
Monday, Mar 18, 2024
California State University, Northridge’s Spring 2024 Cinematheque series will pay tribute to Hollywood casting director and producer Deborah Aquila, executive vice president and head of casting at Paramount Television Studios and CBS Studios, to mark the end of Women’s History Month on Wednesday, March 27.
Keep Up With Our Facebook

Latest Additions to SCVNews.com
1934 - Bouquet Canyon Reservoir, replacement for ill-fated St. Francis Dam & reservoir, begins to fill with water [story]
Bouquet Reservoir
The California Department of Public Health launched the “Never a Bother” campaign, a youth suicide prevention public awareness and outreach campaign for youth, young adults, and their parents, caregivers, and allies.
California Launches New Youth Suicide Prevention Campaign
The Santa Clarita Master Chorale invites the community to "Let the Sunshine In," a delightful evening of food, wine and song at the annual Cabaret & Cabernet fundraising benefit.
April 20: Santa Clarita Master Chorale’s Cabaret, Cabernet Fundraiser
The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health cautions residents who are planning to visit the below Los Angeles County beaches to avoid swimming, surfing, and playing in ocean waters:
March 27 Ocean Water Warning
As an integral ingredient necessary to help the Santa Clarita Valley to flourish, feedback from the business community is the secret sauce for achieving great things.
SCVEDEC Asks For the Business Community’s Opinion on Santa Clarita
Raise your heart rate while raising funds for the Santa Clarita Sister Cities Dollars-for-Desks campaign to provide school desks for students in Sariaya, Santa Clarita's Sister City in the Philippines.
April 13: Sister Cities Zumba-thon Fundraiser
Remo, Inc. is is the world's leading manufacturer and developer of synthetic drumheads and shells. They’ve been in business for 60 years
SCVEDC Company Spotlight: Drumming Up Big Business with Remo, Inc.
California State Assemblywoman Pilar Schiavo (D-Chatsworth) and Assemblyman James Ramos (D-Highland) have introduced AB 3074 the "School or athletic team names: California Racial Mascots Act."
Schiavo Introduces Bill to Prohibit ‘Derogatory’ School Mascot Names
Los Angeles County’s Justice, Care and Opportunities Department  in collaboration with Local Initiatives Support Corporation Los Angeles is proud to announce the 2nd Annual Pitch Competition for the cohorts of JCOD's Incubation Academy.
March 28: JCOD Incubation Academy Helps Grassroots Non-Profits For the Second Year
Children’s Bureau is seeking foster families and now offers two virtual ways for individuals and/or couples to learn how to help children in foster care while reunifying with birth families or how to provide legal permanency by adoption.
April 18: Children’s Bureau Hosts Virtual Orientation
The Sunburst track was constructed in 1887 by the Southern Pacific Railroad and was a part of the main line running between San Francisco and Los Angeles.
Enjoy Spring With a Ride On The Sunburst Track
California State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond hosted a Personal Finance Summit today where he announced his support for Assembly Bill 2927 (McCarty), legislation that would require a personal finance education course for California high school graduation.
State Superintendent Announces Support for Personal Finance Graduation Requirement
1847 - Probable birth date of Pico Canyon oil driller Charles Alexander Mentry [story]
C.A. Mentry
The first Music Jam Session at The MAIN was held on Thursday, Feb. 22 and was a hit. Come out and join in for the next one on Thursday, March 28 7 p.m.-9 p.m.
March 28: The MAIN to Host Musicians’ Jam Session
Los Angeles County Inspector General Max Huntsman of the Office of Inspector General has issued a report entitled "Tenth Report Back on Implementing Body-Worn Cameras in Los Angeles County."
Office of Inspector General Issues Latest Report on LASD Body Cams
College of the Canyons women's tennis played to a convincing 7-2 conference win over Ventura College on Moica to strengthen its potential playoff resume.
Canyons Closes Out Ventura 7-2 in Final Home Match
Join the Santa Clarita Valley Chamber of Commerce with the Latino Business Alliance at the Cinco de Mayo Networking Celebration on Tuesday, May 7.
May 7: Latino Business Alliance Cinco de Mayo Celebration
The Los Angeles County Department of Animal Care and Control is hosting March Meowness promotion where all cat adoptions are just $15 from now until April 9.
Adopt a Cat During March Meowness at Castaic Animal Center
California State University, Northridge is partnering with the Fernandeño Tataviam Band of Mission Indians and the Tataviam Land Conservancy to battle the impact of climate change in disadvantaged communities throughout the San Fernando Valley by establishing “urban forests.”
CSUN Partners with Fernandeño Tataviam Band to Build Urban Forests
Join the Santa Clarita Artists Association on Monday, April 15, 6:30-8:30 p.m. at Barnes and Noble, 23630 Valencia Blvd., Valencia, CA 91355, for the SCAA monthly meeting and guest demonstrator.
April 15: SCAA Presents Debbie Abshear Watercolor Demo
Residents are invited to join members of the Santa Clarita City Council for a special ribbon-cutting ceremony to celebrate the addition of Santa Clarita's 38th park, Skyline Ranch Park, 18355 Skyline Ranch Road, Santa Clarita, CA 91351, to the Santa Clarita parks system on Saturday, April 6, at 10 a.m.
April 6: Grand Opening for Santa Clarita’s 38th Park
The Santa Clarita Valley Senior Center is preparing for the annual fundraising event, Celebrity Waiter, with the theme “California Dreamin’” on Saturday, April 27 at Bella Vida, 27180 Golden Valley Road, Santa Clarita, CA 91351.
Table Sponsorships Still Available for Celebrity Waiter Dinner
Springtime in Santa Clarita brings not only vibrant blooms and opportunities to embrace the outdoors with warmer weather, but also an array of free, family-friendly events and this Saturday is no exception.
Ken Striplin | A Fun, Festive, Egg-Filled Day
SCVNews.com