Some states have decided upon “reopening,” allowing the return of citizens to past freedoms. Politicians have accepted the cries of constituents despite increasing statistics of coronavirus cases and deaths.

As a physician, statistics allow me to decide whether a patient is a candidate for surgery. For example, an ENT specialist recommends a diabetic patient with sinus problems undergo a procedure to eradicate an infection.

I collect “pre-op” information, then decide the “risks and complications” to assure successful surgery. But there are unforeseen variables – poor insulin compliance, persistent smoking, morbid obesity, etc. – that play a role and are more difficult to anticipate.

One unforeseen variable about “reopening” is Mother Nature, and the effect of increasing temperatures on the virus. Most types of coronavirus are negatively impacted by warmer environments. We do not yet know if this variable is true with COVID-19.

For the next few months, the number of cases and deaths might statistically decrease. If this occurs, joyful politicians might claim success from “reopening,” but it could lead to overconfidence and a false sense of security in the fall.

Be aware: The warmth of Mother Nature can skew future statistics.

Gene Uzawa Dorio, M.D., is a geriatric house-call physician who serves as president of the Los Angeles County Commission for Older Adults and Assemblyman to the California Senior Legislature. He has practiced in the Santa Clarita Valley for 32 years.