After what can be characterized as a tumultuous year in the real estate market, Los Angeles County Assessor Jeff Prang announced the May 15 forecast for the 2023 Assessment Roll. Prang reported to the Los Angeles Count Board of Supervisors that taxable property values are anticipated to increase approximately 5% over 2022, marking 13 years of continuous growth.

The May forecast projects the anticipated growth rate for the annual Assessment Roll, which closes in early July. The forecast is an important tool for local governments as they prepare their annual budgets in anticipation of property tax revenues. The annual Assessment Roll is the inventory for all taxable property in the County and can provide insight into the state of the real estate market and the local economy.

To access the 2023 forecast, visit https://assessor.lacounty.gov/news-information/assessmentroll.

“It has been a challenging couple of years as the local and national economies respond to a variety of factors, including COVID. But our analysis indicates property value growth for the 13th consecutive year. This is good news for property owners and for local government, which depends on property taxes to pay for vital public services,” Prang said. “However, the real estate market in 2022 began more robustly than it ended, and the sluggish market is likely to continue through this year.”

Although the housing market did cool considerably since 2021, home median sales prices remained strong through much of the year, reaching a record high exceeding $900,000. The strength of the single-family residential market through the first two quarters of 2022 is projected to produce a significant increase in transfer assessments. Property transfers are anticipated to add more than $63 billion to the Assessment Roll.

The inflation adjustment mandated under Proposition 13 is the second most significant factor contributing to the Roll, adding the maximum 2% allowable under law and resulting in an estimated $37 billion increase to the 2023 Assessment Roll. The Assessor also expects a moderate increase of $5.2 billion in new construction, while decline-in-value reductions will remove more than $2 billion from the Assessment Roll.

The nearly $2 trillion estimated total net value translates into about $20 billion in property tax dollars for vital public services such as public education, first responders and healthcare workers, as well as other county services. Assessments are based on the value of property on Jan. 1, 2023.